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Market monitor

What the markets are pricing

Rates, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies — from public official data, refreshed automatically. Study material, not investment advice.

Updated 2026-11-12 10:10 UTC Refreshes every 3 hours · next at 2026-11-12 13:10 UTC
The brief

Curves price higher rates in 4 of 4 major economies

Across the four major central banks, United States, Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan are priced for higher rates. By industry over the past month, Europe retail led at +13.5% while Semiconductors lagged at −16.8%. Across fixed income, 20+ year Treasuries returned +4.0% over thirty days against +0.1% for 1–3 year treasuries. In commodities, Natural gas rose +11.2% over the month and Silver fell −15.8%. Policy rates across the emerging markets covered stand at China 3.00%, India 5.50% and South Africa 7.25%. In currencies, USD/CHF showed the largest move on the day at 1.12% firmer.

  • United States: Federal funds (effective) at 3.88%, with the US Treasury bill and note curve implying +51bp over 1y.
  • Euro area: Deposit facility rate at 2.50%, with the AAA-rated euro area government curve implying +29bp over 1y.
  • United Kingdom: Bank Rate at 4.00%, with the SONIA overnight index swap curve implying +51bp over 1y.
  • Japan: Overnight call rate (target) at 0.75%, with the Japanese government bond curve implying +90bp over 1y.
  • United States: Consumer staples leads at +13.5%, Technology lags at −10.9%.
  • Europe: Retail leads at +13.5%, Basic resources lags at −5.0%.
  • China: Consumer discretionary leads at +2.7%, Technology lags at −11.3%.
  • Bank of Japan: Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
  • Bank of Japan: Basic Figures on Fails (Oct.)
Assembled automatically from the data below. ANTHROPIC_API_KEY not set — showing the computed summary.
Developed markets · policy expectations

Cut, hold or hike

These are curve-implied estimates, not probabilities. Each measures the change already priced between a near point and a later point on the same published curve — the slope a market quotes is the expectation it holds. Not forecasts, not a house view, and no substitute for the central banks' own guidance.

United States

Federal Reserve
Hikes priced
3.88% Federal funds (effective) · 2026-11-09
+51bp implied over 1y (2.0 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.38% +33bp 1.3
1y 4.56% +51bp 2.0
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month bill and the 6- and 12-month points of the Treasury curve.

Curve as at 2026-11-10.

Euro area

European Central Bank
Hikes priced
2.50% Deposit facility rate
+29bp implied over 1y (1.2 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 2.75% +13bp 0.5
1y 2.91% +29bp 1.2
How this is derived

Change implied between the 3-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the AAA euro area curve.

Curve as at 2026-11-10.

United Kingdom

Bank of England
Hikes priced
4.00% Bank Rate · 2026-11-11
+51bp implied over 1y (2.0 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.27% +28bp 1.1
1y 4.50% +51bp 2.0
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the SONIA OIS curve — the instrument that most directly prices Bank Rate.

Curve as at 2026-11-10.

Japan

Bank of Japan
Hikes priced
0.75% Overnight call rate (target) · 2026-01-23
+90bp implied over 1y (3.6 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
1y 1.65% +90bp 3.6
2y 1.86% +111bp 4.4
How this is derived

The 1- and 2-year JGB yields measured against the current policy rate. Unlike the other three, this comparison spans two different instruments, so it also carries a term premium — read it as direction, not as a quantity.

Because this comparison spans two instruments rather than two points on one, the figure is not directly comparable with the other three cards.

Maintained figure — this central bank publishes no machine-readable policy-rate feed.

Curve as at 2026-11-11.

Emerging markets

China, India, Brazil and South Africa

Where a central bank publishes machine-readable data it is read live; where it does not — China, India — the policy rate is a maintained figure, labelled as such with the date it was last checked. Growth figures are annual and released with a lag, so each carries its year.

China

People's Bank of China
Maintained
3.00% 1-year Loan Prime Rate · since 2026-06-22
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
0.06% 2025
GDP growth
5.0% 2025
USD/CNY
6.67 −0.6% 30d
Shanghai Composite −7.1%Hang Seng −2.1%

India

Reserve Bank of India
Maintained
5.50% Policy repo rate · since 2026-06-06
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
2.40% 2025
GDP growth
7.6% 2025
USD/INR
93.69 −2.4% 30d
Nifty 50 +11.1%

Brazil

Banco Central do Brasil
Live

Banco Central do Brasil: Selic series empty

Consumer prices, annual
5.02% 2025
GDP growth
2.3% 2025
USD/BRL
5.56 +6.8% 30d
Bovespa −6.0%

South Africa

South African Reserve Bank
Live
7.25% Policy rate · as at 2026-11-12
Consumer prices, annual
3.21% 2025
GDP growth
1.1% 2025
USD/ZAR
16.56 +1.0% 30d
Equities

Stocks and equity indices

Closing levels in local currency, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions. The industry breakdown for each of these markets is in the next card.

Equity volatility 18.22 +11.2%
Rate volatility 92.43 −9.2%
US 10-year yield 5.00 −5.6%
S&P 500
United States
7,619USD
+1.31% 30d −0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50
Euro area
6,424EUR
+0.48% 30d +4.0%
FTSE 100
United Kingdom
10,874GBP
+0.36% 30d +4.3%
Nikkei 225
Japan
60,819JPY
−0.70% 30d −7.1%
Shanghai Composite
China
3,656CNY
−0.67% 30d −7.1%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
24,009HKD
−1.26% 30d −2.1%
Nifty 50
India
25,299INR
+0.18% 30d +11.1%
Bovespa
Brazil
172,060BRL
+0.42% 30d −6.0%
Industry decomposition

Which industries are carrying each market

Thirty-day performance by industry, decomposed per equity index — American industries measured against the S&P 500, European against STOXX Europe 600, Chinese against the large-cap China index. A sector that beat the US market may still have lagged its own. Each industry is represented by a liquid fund that tracks it: a transparent proxy, not constituent-weighted index sector returns, which are licensed and not publicly available.

United States · S&P 500
S&P 500 −0.4%

The full eleven-sector breakdown, measured against the S&P 500.

Consumer staples +13.5% +13.9%
Health care +12.2% +12.6%
Consumer discretionary +11.2% +11.6%
Utilities +11.1% +11.5%
Financials +9.8% +10.2%
Real estate +9.0% +9.4%
Materials +8.9% +9.3%
Energy +3.0% +3.5%
Industrials & manufacturing +2.4% +2.8%
Communication services −2.1% −1.7%
Technology −10.9% −10.5%
Europe · STOXX Europe 600
STOXX Europe 600 +6.5%

European industries measured against STOXX Europe 600, not against the US market.

Retail +13.5% +7.0%
Chemicals +11.6% +5.2%
Construction & materials +11.5% +5.1%
Automobiles & parts +5.0% −1.5%
Oil & gas +0.9% −5.6%
Banks +0.5% −5.9%
Technology −2.2% −8.6%
Basic resources −5.0% −11.5%
China · China large cap
China large cap −0.3%

Chinese industries measured against the large-cap China index.

Consumer discretionary +2.7% +3.0%
Internet −3.4% −3.1%
Mainland A-shares (CSI 300) −5.8% −5.6%
Technology −11.3% −11.0%
Cross-border themes

Industries that do not belong to one market’s sector scheme, measured against the S&P 500.

Infrastructure & construction +2.8% +3.2%
Fintech +1.5% +1.9%
Clean energy −4.2% −3.8%
AI & robotics −8.5% −8.1%
Semiconductors −16.8% −16.3%
Industry headlines
Bars show the 30-day change. The right-hand figure is performance relative to that market’s own index over the same period.
Fixed income

Bond indices

Thirty-day total return by segment. Government bonds are grouped by maturity because duration is what makes them move; credit is split by rating, and the gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

Government, by maturity

The longer the maturity, the more a given move in yields is worth.

20+ year Treasuries Long duration +4.0%
7–10 year Treasuries Intermediate +1.8%
Inflation-linked (TIPS) Real yield +1.2%
1–3 year Treasuries Short duration +0.1%
Credit

The gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

Municipals Tax-exempt +3.7%
Investment-grade corporates IG +1.7%
High-yield corporates Sub-IG +0.2%
Broad & international
US aggregate Whole US market +1.4%
Emerging market USD debt Hard currency +1.4%
International ex-US Hedged +1.3%
Returns are index-tracking fund prices, so they include coupon reinvestment but not the fund’s own fees.
Commodities

Energy, metals and agriculture

Front-month futures settlement prices, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions.

Energy
Natural gas
3.30$/MMBtu
+2.58% 30d +11.2%
WTI crude
86.24$/bbl
−0.34% 30d −7.1%
Brent crude
92.44$/bbl
−0.34% 30d −9.6%
Precious & industrial metals
Copper
6.21$/lb
−1.00% 30d −4.2%
Gold
3,948$/oz
−1.30% 30d −6.0%
Platinum
1,530$/oz
−0.58% 30d −10.3%
Silver
51.11$/oz
−1.49% 30d −15.8%
Agriculture
Wheat
596.0US¢/bu
−0.58% 30d −12.7%
Currencies

Cross rates

Daily reference rates as at 2026-11-11. The trend column shows the last 30 published observations.

PairRate1 day30 days30-day trend
EUR/USD 1.1127 −0.78% −2.21%
GBP/USD 1.3307 −0.86% +0.33%
USD/JPY 159.23 +0.66% +1.50%
USD/CHF 0.82987 +1.12% −0.23%
AUD/USD 0.68592 −0.64% −2.34%
USD/CAD 1.4235 +0.70% +0.49%
EUR/GBP 0.83618 +0.09% −2.53%
EUR/JPY 177.18 −0.11% −0.74%
Headlines

What moved the story

Central bank releases and financial press, ranked by relevance and recency. Links open at the publisher; Meridian neither hosts nor endorses their content.

  1. Japanese Government Bonds Held by the Bank of Japan
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-11-12 08:00 UTC
  2. Basic Figures on Fails (Oct.)
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-11-12 07:30 UTC
  3. Speech by Board Member ASADA in Nagasaki (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan)
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-11-12 01:30 UTC
  4. Bank of Japan Accounts (November 10)
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-11-12 01:00 UTC
  5. Philip R. Lane: The science and practice of monetary policy communication: the ECB experience
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-11-10 16:45 UTC
  6. Indian bonds drift as US debt rout saps oil relief before CPI
    The Economic Times 2026-11-12 06:16 UTC
  7. Corporate Goods Price Index (Oct.)
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-11-11 23:50 UTC
  8. India bonds to stay hemmed in by oil, Treasury moves ahead of inflation data
    The Economic Times 2026-11-12 02:48 UTC
  9. Singapore opens gold vault to foreign central banks in race to become Asia’s gold hub
    South China Morning Post 2026-11-12 09:00 UTC
  10. Summary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on October 29 and 30, 2026
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC
  11. Poland Loses Luster as Debt Woes Mount on Political Turmoil
    Bloomberg 2026-11-12 07:30 UTC
  12. Blackstone, Pimco Target Gulf’s Multibillion-Dollar Buildout
    Bloomberg 2026-11-12 08:47 UTC
  13. China’s Huafa abandons domestic AAA rating amid Fitch downgrade, bond market jitters
    South China Morning Post 2026-11-12 08:00 UTC
  14. Oil India among 6 stocks closing above VWAP
    The Economic Times 2026-11-12 04:13 UTC
  15. Fed's Goolsbee calls inflation report 'borderline disturbing' as central bank weighs more hikes
    CNBC 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC
  16. Chinese carmakers offer lifeline to Europe’s struggling steel industry
    Financial Times 2026-11-12 05:00 UTC
  17. Piero Cipollone: Cash and the digital euro: two sides of the same coin
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-11-10 14:00 UTC
  18. Unique Picks: 9 stocks held by just one MF scheme in October, rally up to 144% YTD
    The Economic Times 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC
Sources & method

Everything here comes from public data

No commercial data terminal, subscription feed or third-party probability estimate is used anywhere on this page.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York — policy rates
  • European Central Bank — policy rates
  • Bank of England — policy rates
  • Bank of Japan — policy rates
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — yield curves
  • European Central Bank (AAA-rated euro area government bonds) — yield curves
  • Japan Ministry of Finance — yield curves
  • People's Bank of China — policy rate (maintained)
  • Reserve Bank of India — policy rate (maintained)
  • South African Reserve Bank — policy rates
  • World Bank — macroeconomic indicators
  • European Central Bank reference rates (via Frankfurter) — exchange rates
  • Public market data (index, fund and futures closing prices) — equity indices and sector performance
  • Central bank and financial-press RSS feeds — headlines

The directional call for each developed market is computed from the published curve using the method shown on its card. Industry performance uses tracking funds as proxies. Emerging-market policy rates are read live where a machine-readable feed exists and maintained by hand where it does not — every card says which.

This page is prepared for training and research use. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a system of record.

Some sources did not respond in this update: br rates — Banco Central do Brasil: Selic series empty