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Market monitor

What the markets are pricing

Rates, equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies — from public official data, refreshed automatically. Study material, not investment advice.

Updated 2026-09-13 11:10 UTC Refreshes every 3 hours · next at 2026-09-13 14:10 UTC
The brief

Curves price higher rates in 4 of 4 major economies

Across the four major central banks, United States, Euro area, United Kingdom and Japan are priced for higher rates. By industry over the past month, United States energy led at +10.5% while China internet lagged at −12.3%. Across fixed income, 1–3 year Treasuries returned −0.8% over thirty days against −2.4% for municipals. In commodities, WTI crude rose +19.7% over the month and Copper fell +1.6%. Policy rates across the emerging markets covered stand at China 3.00%, India 5.50%, Brazil 14.00% and South Africa 7.00%. In currencies, USD/CHF showed the largest move on the day at 0.41% firmer.

  • United States: Federal funds (effective) at 3.63%, with the US Treasury bill and note curve implying +42bp over 1y.
  • Euro area: Deposit facility rate at 2.25%, with the AAA-rated euro area government curve implying +43bp over 1y.
  • United Kingdom: Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the SONIA overnight index swap curve implying +63bp over 1y.
  • Japan: Overnight call rate (target) at 0.75%, with the Japanese government bond curve implying +80bp over 1y.
  • United States: Energy leads at +10.5%, Utilities lags at −5.1%.
  • Europe: Basic resources leads at +7.3%, Retail lags at −6.6%.
  • China: Mainland A-shares (CSI 300) leads at −1.8%, Internet lags at −12.3%.
  • Bank of Japan: Central Bank Digital Currency Experiments: Progress Report on the Pilot Program (June 2026)
  • European Central Bank: Christine Lagarde: Interview with Ouest-France
Assembled automatically from the data below. ANTHROPIC_API_KEY not set — showing the computed summary.
Developed markets · policy expectations

Cut, hold or hike

These are curve-implied estimates, not probabilities. Each measures the change already priced between a near point and a later point on the same published curve — the slope a market quotes is the expectation it holds. Not forecasts, not a house view, and no substitute for the central banks' own guidance.

United States

Federal Reserve
Hikes priced
3.63% Federal funds (effective) · 2026-09-10
+42bp implied over 1y (1.7 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.12% +19bp 0.8
1y 4.35% +42bp 1.7
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month bill and the 6- and 12-month points of the Treasury curve.

Curve as at 2026-09-11.

Euro area

European Central Bank
Hikes priced
2.25% Deposit facility rate
+43bp implied over 1y (1.7 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 2.68% +19bp 0.8
1y 2.92% +43bp 1.7
How this is derived

Change implied between the 3-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the AAA euro area curve.

Curve as at 2026-09-10.

United Kingdom

Bank of England
Hikes priced
3.75% Bank Rate · 2026-09-10
+63bp implied over 1y (2.5 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
6m 4.06% +30bp 1.2
1y 4.39% +63bp 2.5
How this is derived

Change implied between the 1-month and the 6- and 12-month points of the SONIA OIS curve — the instrument that most directly prices Bank Rate.

Curve as at 2026-09-10.

Japan

Bank of Japan
Hikes priced
0.75% Overnight call rate (target) · 2026-01-23
+80bp implied over 1y (3.2 moves of 25bp)
HorizonCurveImplied25bp moves
1y 1.55% +80bp 3.2
2y 1.82% +107bp 4.3
How this is derived

The 1- and 2-year JGB yields measured against the current policy rate. Unlike the other three, this comparison spans two different instruments, so it also carries a term premium — read it as direction, not as a quantity.

Because this comparison spans two instruments rather than two points on one, the figure is not directly comparable with the other three cards.

Maintained figure — this central bank publishes no machine-readable policy-rate feed.

Curve as at 2026-09-10.

Emerging markets

China, India, Brazil and South Africa

Where a central bank publishes machine-readable data it is read live; where it does not — China, India — the policy rate is a maintained figure, labelled as such with the date it was last checked. Growth figures are annual and released with a lag, so each carries its year.

China

People's Bank of China
Maintained
3.00% 1-year Loan Prime Rate · since 2026-06-22
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
0.06% 2025
GDP growth
5.0% 2025
USD/CNY
6.71 −0.7% 30d
Shanghai Composite +1.5%Hang Seng −4.2%

India

Reserve Bank of India
Maintained
5.50% Policy repo rate · since 2026-06-06
Maintained figure, checked 2026-08-01 — no machine-readable feed is published. Verify at source
Consumer prices, annual
2.40% 2025
GDP growth
7.6% 2025
USD/INR
95.56 −0.1% 30d
Nifty 50 −4.0%

Brazil

Banco Central do Brasil
Live
14.00% Policy rate · as at 2026-09-13
IPCA, 12-month
4.22% 2026-08-01
GDP growth
2.3% 2025
USD/BRL
5.11 +0.2% 30d
Bovespa +5.7%

South Africa

South African Reserve Bank
Live
7.00% Policy rate · as at 2026-09-11
Consumer prices, annual
3.21% 2025
GDP growth
1.1% 2025
USD/ZAR
16.16 −2.6% 30d
Equities

Stocks and equity indices

Closing levels in local currency, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions. The industry breakdown for each of these markets is in the next card.

Equity volatility 15.84 −0.9%
Rate volatility 82.21 +6.6%
US 10-year yield 4.97 +6.7%
S&P 500
United States
7,657USD
+0.86% 30d +2.9%
Euro Stoxx 50
Euro area
6,325EUR
+0.90% 30d −0.5%
FTSE 100
United Kingdom
10,650GBP
+0.39% 30d −2.3%
Nikkei 225
Japan
64,011JPY
−1.93% 30d +3.5%
Shanghai Composite
China
3,888CNY
−1.18% 30d +1.5%
Hang Seng
Hong Kong
24,806HKD
−0.60% 30d −4.2%
Nifty 50
India
23,398INR
−0.34% 30d −4.0%
Bovespa
Brazil
187,207BRL
−0.56% 30d +5.7%
Industry decomposition

Which industries are carrying each market

Thirty-day performance by industry, decomposed per equity index — American industries measured against the S&P 500, European against STOXX Europe 600, Chinese against the large-cap China index. A sector that beat the US market may still have lagged its own. Each industry is represented by a liquid fund that tracks it: a transparent proxy, not constituent-weighted index sector returns, which are licensed and not publicly available.

United States · S&P 500
S&P 500 +2.9%

The full eleven-sector breakdown, measured against the S&P 500.

Energy +10.5% +7.5%
Technology +6.8% +3.8%
Communication services +5.6% +2.7%
Health care +1.1% −1.8%
Consumer discretionary +0.5% −2.4%
Financials +0.4% −2.5%
Materials −1.3% −4.3%
Consumer staples −2.4% −5.4%
Industrials & manufacturing −3.4% −6.3%
Real estate −4.2% −7.1%
Utilities −5.1% −8.0%
Europe · STOXX Europe 600
STOXX Europe 600 −1.3%

European industries measured against STOXX Europe 600, not against the US market.

Basic resources +7.3% +8.6%
Oil & gas +4.1% +5.4%
Banks +2.5% +3.8%
Technology +2.2% +3.5%
Automobiles & parts +1.6% +2.9%
Chemicals −1.2% +0.2%
Construction & materials −5.5% −4.2%
Retail −6.6% −5.3%
China · China large cap
China large cap −5.6%

Chinese industries measured against the large-cap China index.

Mainland A-shares (CSI 300) −1.8% +3.7%
Technology −6.7% −1.1%
Consumer discretionary −11.8% −6.2%
Internet −12.3% −6.8%
Cross-border themes

Industries that do not belong to one market’s sector scheme, measured against the S&P 500.

Semiconductors +5.5% +2.5%
Clean energy +1.4% −1.5%
AI & robotics +1.1% −1.9%
Fintech +0.7% −2.3%
Infrastructure & construction −3.6% −6.5%
Industry headlines
Bars show the 30-day change. The right-hand figure is performance relative to that market’s own index over the same period.
Fixed income

Bond indices

Thirty-day total return by segment. Government bonds are grouped by maturity because duration is what makes them move; credit is split by rating, and the gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

Government, by maturity

The longer the maturity, the more a given move in yields is worth.

1–3 year Treasuries Short duration −0.8%
Inflation-linked (TIPS) Real yield −1.8%
20+ year Treasuries Long duration −2.3%
7–10 year Treasuries Intermediate −2.4%
Credit

The gap between investment grade and high yield is the market’s price of credit risk.

High-yield corporates Sub-IG −1.1%
Investment-grade corporates IG −2.0%
Municipals Tax-exempt −2.4%
Broad & international
Emerging market USD debt Hard currency −1.5%
US aggregate Whole US market −1.7%
International ex-US Hedged −1.9%
Returns are index-tracking fund prices, so they include coupon reinvestment but not the fund’s own fees.
Commodities

Energy, metals and agriculture

Front-month futures settlement prices, with the change on the day and over thirty sessions.

Energy
WTI crude
100.1$/bbl
−2.37% 30d +19.7%
Brent crude
104.6$/bbl
−2.81% 30d +17.5%
Natural gas
2.83$/MMBtu
−0.11% 30d +2.6%
Precious & industrial metals
Silver
65.19$/oz
+1.41% 30d +10.8%
Platinum
1,798$/oz
+0.03% 30d +8.8%
Gold
4,409$/oz
+1.02% 30d +7.5%
Copper
6.55$/lb
+1.25% 30d +1.6%
Agriculture
Wheat
726.3US¢/bu
+0.41% 30d +9.5%
Currencies

Cross rates

Daily reference rates as at 2026-09-11. The trend column shows the last 30 published observations.

PairRate1 day30 days30-day trend
EUR/USD 1.1592 −0.21% +1.01%
GBP/USD 1.3508 −0.09% +0.89%
USD/JPY 154.04 −0.09% −5.46%
USD/CHF 0.8153 +0.41% +0.35%
AUD/USD 0.71728 −0.17% +2.75%
USD/CAD 1.3858 +0.30% −1.34%
EUR/GBP 0.85815 −0.12% +0.12%
EUR/JPY 178.56 −0.30% −4.51%
Headlines

What moved the story

Central bank releases and financial press, ranked by relevance and recency. Links open at the publisher; Meridian neither hosts nor endorses their content.

  1. Central Bank Digital Currency Experiments: Progress Report on the Pilot Program (June 2026)
    Central bank Bank of Japan 2026-09-11 01:00 UTC
  2. Christine Lagarde: Interview with Ouest-France
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-09-12 20:00 UTC
  3. Christine Lagarde, Boris Vujčić: Monetary policy statement (with Q&A)
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-09-10 13:00 UTC
  4. Monetary policy decisions
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-09-10 12:15 UTC
  5. Energy Driven Inflation Complicates Fed Rate Call
    Bloomberg 2026-09-12 15:11 UTC
  6. Senegal Raises $179 Million as Debt Rework Tests Local Market
    Bloomberg 2026-09-13 10:36 UTC
  7. Why Chinese shoppers are ditching supermarkets for small ‘community stores’
    South China Morning Post 2026-09-13 08:00 UTC
  8. Rise and fall of Hong Kong’s ‘shop kings’: how plunging rents, debt crushed their empires
    South China Morning Post 2026-09-13 08:00 UTC
  9. Christine Lagarde: Europe seen from Normandy
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-09-12 10:15 UTC
  10. Philip R. Lane: Outlook for the euro area economy
    Central bank European Central Bank 2026-09-11 17:00 UTC
  11. 'This is the test': All eyes on US Fed to tackle high inflation
    The Economic Times 2026-09-13 04:27 UTC
  12. US Treasury yield hits 19-year high, Japanese yen strengthens: the numbers moving markets
    South China Morning Post 2026-09-11 07:00 UTC
  13. This Week’s Key Economic and Crypto Events: US FOMC Rate Decision Ahead - bloomingbit
    News aggregator 2026-09-13 08:51 UTC
  14. ETMarkets Smart Talk| From floor trading to AI algos: Why India’s retail traders are entering the automation era, says Shruti Jain
    The Economic Times 2026-09-13 08:23 UTC
  15. Dividends and stock splits: Hindustan Copper, Cochin Shipyard among 200+ stocks with record dates this week. Check full list
    The Economic Times 2026-09-13 07:31 UTC
  16. 8 midcap stocks clock up to 245% EBITDA growth in June quarter. Do you own any?
    The Economic Times 2026-09-13 06:08 UTC
  17. Oil prices create 'huge worry' as winter looms
    BBC Business 2026-09-13 06:01 UTC
  18. 18th BRICS Summit Wraps In New Delhi
    Bloomberg 2026-09-13 08:53 UTC
Sources & method

Everything here comes from public data

No commercial data terminal, subscription feed or third-party probability estimate is used anywhere on this page.

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York — policy rates
  • European Central Bank — policy rates
  • Bank of England — policy rates
  • Bank of Japan — policy rates
  • U.S. Department of the Treasury — yield curves
  • European Central Bank (AAA-rated euro area government bonds) — yield curves
  • Japan Ministry of Finance — yield curves
  • People's Bank of China — policy rate (maintained)
  • Reserve Bank of India — policy rate (maintained)
  • Banco Central do Brasil — policy rates
  • South African Reserve Bank — policy rates
  • World Bank — macroeconomic indicators
  • European Central Bank reference rates (via Frankfurter) — exchange rates
  • Public market data (index, fund and futures closing prices) — equity indices and sector performance
  • Central bank and financial-press RSS feeds — headlines

The directional call for each developed market is computed from the published curve using the method shown on its card. Industry performance uses tracking funds as proxies. Emerging-market policy rates are read live where a machine-readable feed exists and maintained by hand where it does not — every card says which.

This page is prepared for training and research use. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a system of record.